Otmane El Rhazi' Economic Analysis

Otmane El Rhazi is a British blogger of Economic Analysis, Trading News and Regulation. Otmane's Blog connects you to the Tools you need to be a successful Trader. Short posts or market recaps are great way to spread the knowledge. Mr Otmane El Rhazi's decade of experience in Investment is at your fingertips.
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Otmane El Rhazi :

State personal income growth accelerated to 1.5 percent on average in the second quarter of 2014 from 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Personal income growth ranged from 2.7 percent in North Dakota and Nebraska to 1.1 percent New York and Alaska, with growth accelerating 36 states. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, accelerated to 0.6 percent in the second quarter from 0.3 percent in the first quarter.

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State-Person14

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Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI

Otmane El Rhazi :

Personal income rose 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.2 percent in July. Wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, rose 0.4 percent in August afterJune thru Aug chart rising 0.2 percent in July.

Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI), after-tax income, rose 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.2 percent in July.

Real DPI, income adjusted for taxes and inflation, increased 0.3 percent in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July.

Real consumer spending, spending adjusted for price changes, increased 0.5 percent in August after decreasing 0.1 percent in July. Spending on durable goods increased 1.9 percent in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July.

PCE prices remained flat in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July. Excluding food and energy, PCE prices increased 0.1 percent in August, the same increase as in July.

Personal saving rate
Personal saving as a percent of DPI was 5.4 percent in August and 5.6 percent in July.

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Real Disposable



Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI

Otmane El Rhazi :

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The second-quarter growth rate was revised up 0.4 percentage point from the “second” estimate released in August. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent.

Second-quarter highlights QUARTER TO Quarter growth
Exports of notably nondurable industrial supplies and materials and nonfarm inventory investment by motor vehicle dealers accounted for much of the upturn in real GDP.

In addition, business investment accelerated, mainly in information processing equipment, as did consumer spending, mainly on motor vehicles and parts.

In contrast to these contributions, imports (a subtraction in the calculation of GDP) were higher in the second quarter than in the first quarter.

Revisions
The 0.4 percentage point revision to second-quarter GDP growth primarily reflected the following:

  • Business investment was revised up, notably manufacturing structures.
  • Exports were revised up, notably travel services.

See the Technical Note for more information.

Corporate profits  corporate profits
Corporate profits increased 8.4 percent at a quarterly rate in the second quarter after decreasing 9.4 percent in the first quarter. The second quarter increase was the largest since the third quarter of 2010.

  • Profits of nonfinancial corporations rose 11.9 percent after falling 7.4 percent.
  • Profits of financial corporations rose 8.0 percent after falling 17.1 percent.
  • Profits from the rest of the world fell 0.9 percent after falling 6.1 percent.

Over the last 12 months, corporate profits rose 0.1 percent.

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Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI

Otmane El Rhazi :

The U.S. net international investment position was -$5,445.1 billion (preliminary) at the end of the second quarter of 2014 as the value of U.S. liabilities exceeded the value of U.S. assets. At the end of the first quarter, the net position was -$5,511.7 billion (revised).

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  • The $66.6 billion increase in the net position reflected a $913.2 billion increase in the value of U.S. assets and an $846.7 billion increase in the value of U.S. liabilities, mainly from increases in foreign and U.S. equity prices.
  • The U.S. net international investment position increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.4 percent in the first quarter and an average quarterly decrease of 7.4 percent from the first quarter of 2011 through the fourth quarter of 2013.
  • U.S. assets were $24,933.3 billion at the end of the second quarter compared with $24,020.1 billion at the end of the first quarter.
  • U.S. liabilities were $30,378.4 billion at the end of the second quarter compared with $29,531.7 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Read the full report.



Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Otmane El Rhazi, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released prototype estimates of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for states for 1997-2012. These new estimates provide insight into household spending patterns across states that can be used together with other regional data to gain a better understanding of regional economies.

The data provide a new tool for state-level analysis of consumer activity and household economic well-being. The statistics can be used by state and regional policy makers for fiscal analysis and by businesses targeting regional markets. These prototype estimates are released for evaluation and comment by data users.

The PCE-by-state estimates are released for 16 expenditure categories that correspond to the national level expenditure categories published by BEA. There are eight categories of goods, seven categories of services, and the net expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. The PCE-by-state estimates are reported in current dollars, and reflect variation in both prices and quantities.

Growth in Total Personal Consumption Expenditures by State

The prototype statistics show that total PCE rose in all states in 2012, but generally at a slower rate than in 2011. Growth was fastest in North Dakota at 11.5%, after growing 11.6% in 2011. PCE grew faster in 2012 compared with 2011 in Arizona, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Utah.

Map of US



Per Capita Total Personal Consumption Expenditures

On a per capita basis, the prototype estimates show that the level of total PCE in 2012 ranged from a high of $59,423 in the District of Columbia to a low of $27,406 in Mississippi. Other states with relatively high per capita PCE were Massachusetts, Connecticut, and North Dakota. Across all states, per capita PCE was $35,498. States with per capita PCE closest to the average value were Oregon and Nebraska.

Map of US
U.S. Current-Account Deficit Decreases

Otmane El Rhazi, The U.S. current-account deficit-the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers – decreased to $98.5 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2014 from $102.1 billion (revised) in the first quarter of 2014. As a percentage of U.S. GDP, the deficit decreased to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent. The previously published current-account deficit for the first quarter was $111.2 billion.

current account

  • The deficit on international trade in goods increased to $189.2 billion from $182.3 billion as goods imports increased more than goods exports.
  • The surplus on international trade in services increased to $58.9 billion from $57.8 billion as services exports increased more than services imports.
  • The surplus on primary income increased to $53.1 billion from $52.4 billion as primary income receipts increased more than primary income    payments.
  • The deficit on secondary income (current transfers) decreased to $21.4 billion from $30.0 billion as secondary income receipts increased and secondary income payments decreased.

Net U.S. borrowing from financial-account transactions was $17.6 billion in the second quarter, down from $91.2 billion in the first.

  • Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives was $232.7 billion in the second quarter, up from $143.3 billion in the first.
  • Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives was $247.4 billion in the second quarter, up from $239.8 billion in the first.
  • Net borrowing in financial derivatives other than reserves was $2.8 billion in the second quarter, a shift from net lending of $5.3 billion in the first.

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Travel and Tourism Spending Q1 2014

Otmane El Rhazi, United states, Real spending on travel and tourism turned up in the second quarter of 2014, increasing at an annual rate of 2.1 percent after decreasing 1.1 percent (revised) in the first quarter of 2014. Real gross domestic product (GDP) also experienced an upturn, increasing 4.2 percent (second estimate) in the second quarter after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. All major categories, with the exception of “traveler accommodations” contributed to the increase in the second quarter.

The leading contributors to the upturn in the second quarter were “recreation, entertainment, and shopping,” and “food services and drinking places.” “Recreation, entertainment, and shopping” increased 4.5 percent in the second quarter after decreasing 2.7 percent in the first quarter. “Food services and drinking places” increased 6.5 percent after decreasing 1.8 percent. “Transportation” increased as well, reflecting an upturn in “passenger air transportation” that was partly offset by a downturn “all other transportation-related commodities.” Partially offsetting these upturns, “traveler accommodations” decreased 0.8 percent in the second quarter after increasing 0.6 percent.travel tourism chart

What a stunning beach while in holiday!

A lovely mosque mark of peace by Otmane El Rhazi.

A lovely mosque mark of peace by Otmane El Rhazi.

Otmane El Rhazi - A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to US news-flow. Retail Sales are expected to have added 0.6 percent in August, marking the largest increase in four months. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge is forecast to show the strongest sentiment reading since April.

The trend in US economic data in the weeks leading up to Augusts’ disappointing jobs report was decidedly rosy. Chatter around the news-wires was dismissive of the soft payrolls outcome, chalking it up to a flukethat would be revised away in subsequent releases rather than a real turning point for US economic performance.

If that narrative finds support in upbeat results on today’s outcomes, that may fuel bets on a relatively sooner onset of policy tightening from the Federal Reserve. This has potential to undermine risk appetite considering the formative role of Fed stimulus in elevating sentiment in recent years. Such a scenario is likely to generate gains for the US Dollar while applying particularly strong selling pressure to commodity-bloc currencies.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. Risk aversion appeared to be the driving catalyst behind the move. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index traded lower and S&P 500 futures faced selling pressure, eroding demand for the sentiment-sensitive Australian unit. We remain short AUDUSD.