Otmane El Rhazi's Economic Analysis

Otmane El Rhazi is a British blogger of Economic Analysis, Trading News and Regulation. Otmane's Blog connects you to the Tools you need to be a successful Trader. Short posts or market recaps are great way to spread the knowledge. Mr Otmane El Rhazi's decades of experience in Investment are at your fingertips.
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Analysis by Otmane El Rhazi

With the release of the October edition of the Survey of Current Business, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the most detailed tables on trade in services by type of service and by area and country. These data represent the final product related to the restructuring of BEA’s international accounts, the most sweeping revamp since 1976.

This annual article (U.S. International Services: Trade in Services and Services Supplied Through Affiliates) provides a broad perspective on services provided by and to the United States in international markets by presenting information on both trade in services and services supplied through the channel of direct investment by affiliates of multinational enterprises. This year’s article will feature restructured tables on U.S. exports and imports of services consistent with those released with the international transactions accounts in June. The statistics on services supplied through affiliates will not be restructured but there will be minor changes to the tables to adopt new terminology.

In addition, these tables will be made available for the first time in BEA’s interactive tables.  This gives users the flexibility to customize their own time series rather than relying on static Excel tables. Templates previewing the structure of the tables are available here.

New information on trade by detailed type of service and by area and country will be available under the restructured trade in services tables.  For example:
• Exports and imports of accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services by area and country
• Exports and imports of construction by area and country
• Exports and imports of architectural and engineering services by area and country

Also, the analysis in the article has expanded to include statistics on services provided to, and received from, nonresidents by U.S. government agencies, both military and nonmilitary, as part of a new category, “government goods and services n.i.e.” (not included elsewhere).  With this change, this article will now provide detailed information on all U.S. trade in services, not just private services.

These changes have aligned U.S. data more closely with updated international guidelines, such as the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual. Keeping up with international guidelines makes it easier for users to compare U.S. data with data from our major trade and investment partners.



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Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Analysis by Otmane El Rhazi

Manufacturing Day is Oct. 3, and that’s the perfect time to brush up on your factory factoids. Here are some data nuggets produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that might surprise you:bea-manufacturing-by-state

The first two facts come from BEA’s GDP by industry data, which are now available on a quarterly basis. The next installment comes out Nov. 13. The third one comes from BEA’s GDP accounts. And, data on exports of manufactured goods can be found in the monthly trade report produced jointly by BEA and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Want to know where manufacturing plays the biggest role in state and regional economies? You can rely on BEA data to answer that question.  

In 2013, Indiana ranked highest in the concentration of manufacturing, followed by Oregon, Louisiana, and North Carolina. According to the BEA’s GDP by metropolitan area data released Sept. 16, the Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana and Kokomo, Indiana metro areas had the highest manufacturing concentration in the nation, followed by the Lake Charles, Louisiana metro area.

Providing businesses and individuals with the statistics they need to compete in the global marketplace is one way that BEA is helping to unleash the power of data for American businesses. The Commerce Department’s ‘Open for Business Agenda’ prioritizes unleashing more data and making it more accessible so it can catalyze the emergence of new businesses, products, and services. Data from the Commerce Department, America’s data agency, enable start-ups, move markets, and power both small and multi-billion dollar companies.



Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI

Analysis by Otmane El Rhazi

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in August 2014 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $40.3 billion in July (revised) to $40.1 billion in August as exports increased more than imports. The previously published July deficit was $40.5 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.1 billion from July to $59.9 billion in August; the services surplus increased $0.3 billion from July to $19.8 billion in August.

August Trade Gap

Exports
Exports of goods and services increased $0.4 billion in August to $198.5 billion, mostly reflecting an increase in exports of services. Exports of goods also increased.

  • The increase in exports of services reflected increases in transport, which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, and in travel (for all purposes including education). Changes in the other categories of services exports were relatively small.
  • The increase in exports of goods was more than accounted for by increases in capital goods, in consumer goods, and in industrial supplies and materials. Partly offsetting were decreases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines and in foods, feeds, and beverages.

Imports
Imports of goods and services increased $0.2 billion in August to $238.6 billion, reflecting increases in imports of both goods and services.

  • The increase in imports of goods was more than accounted for by increases in capital goods and in consumer goods. Partly offsetting were decreases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines and in other goods.
  • The increase in imports of services reflected increases in transport and in other business services that were partly offset by a decrease in charges for the use of intellectual property, which in July included payments for the rights to broadcast the 2014 soccer World Cup.

Goods by geographic area (seasonally adjusted, Census basis)

  • The goods deficit with OPEC decreased from $4.9 billion in July to $2.4 billion in August. Exports increased $0.8 billion to $7.7 billion, and imports decreased $1.7 billion to $10.1 billion.
  • The goods deficit with Japan decreased from $5.7 billion in July to $4.7 billion in August. Exports increased $0.5 billion to $6.1 billion, and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $10.8 billion.
  • The goods deficit with the European Union increased from $9.5 billion in July to $12.5 billion in August. Exports decreased $0.7 billion to $24.0 billion, and imports increased $2.2 billion to $36.5 billion.

Read the full report.



Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI

Analysis by Otmane El Rhazi

State personal income growth accelerated to 1.5 percent on average in the second quarter of 2014 from 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Personal income growth ranged from 2.7 percent in North Dakota and Nebraska to 1.1 percent New York and Alaska, with growth accelerating 36 states. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, accelerated to 0.6 percent in the second quarter from 0.3 percent in the first quarter.

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State-Person14

Read the full report.

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Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Analysis by Otmane El Rhazi

Personal income rose 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.2 percent in July. Wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, rose 0.4 percent in August afterJune thru Aug chart rising 0.2 percent in July.

Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI), after-tax income, rose 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.2 percent in July.

Real DPI, income adjusted for taxes and inflation, increased 0.3 percent in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July.

Real consumer spending, spending adjusted for price changes, increased 0.5 percent in August after decreasing 0.1 percent in July. Spending on durable goods increased 1.9 percent in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July.

PCE prices remained flat in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July. Excluding food and energy, PCE prices increased 0.1 percent in August, the same increase as in July.

Personal saving rate
Personal saving as a percent of DPI was 5.4 percent in August and 5.6 percent in July.

Read the full report.

Real Disposable

image

Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Analysis by Otmane El Rhazi

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The second-quarter growth rate was revised up 0.4 percentage point from the “second” estimate released in August. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent.

Second-quarter highlights

QUARTER TO Quarter growth

Exports of notably nondurable industrial supplies and materials and nonfarm inventory investment by motor vehicle dealers accounted for much of the upturn in real GDP.

In addition, business investment accelerated, mainly in information processing equipment, as did consumer spending, mainly on motor vehicles and parts.

In contrast to these contributions, imports (a subtraction in the calculation of GDP) were higher in the second quarter than in the first quarter.

Revisions
The 0.4 percentage point revision to second-quarter GDP growth primarily reflected the following:

  • Business investment was revised up, notably manufacturing structures.
  • Exports were revised up, notably travel services.

See the Technical Note for more information.

Corporate profits 

corporate profits

Corporate profits increased 8.4 percent at a quarterly rate in the second quarter after decreasing 9.4 percent in the first quarter. The second quarter increase was the largest since the third quarter of 2010.

  • Profits of nonfinancial corporations rose 11.9 percent after falling 7.4 percent.
  • Profits of financial corporations rose 8.0 percent after falling 17.1 percent.
  • Profits from the rest of the world fell 0.9 percent after falling 6.1 percent.

Over the last 12 months, corporate profits rose 0.1 percent.

Read the full report.

image

Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Analysis by Otmane El Rhazi

The U.S. net international investment position was -$5,445.1 billion (preliminary) at the end of the second quarter of 2014 as the value of U.S. liabilities exceeded the value of U.S. assets. At the end of the first quarter, the net position was -$5,511.7 billion (revised).

intinv214_fax

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  • The $66.6 billion increase in the net position reflected a $913.2 billion increase in the value of U.S. assets and an $846.7 billion increase in the value of U.S. liabilities, mainly from increases in foreign and U.S. equity prices.
  • The U.S. net international investment position increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.4 percent in the first quarter and an average quarterly decrease of 7.4 percent from the first quarter of 2011 through the fourth quarter of 2013.
  • U.S. assets were $24,933.3 billion at the end of the second quarter compared with $24,020.1 billion at the end of the first quarter.
  • U.S. liabilities were $30,378.4 billion at the end of the second quarter compared with $29,531.7 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Read the full report.

image

Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Otmane El Rhazi, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released prototype estimates of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for states for 1997-2012. These new estimates provide insight into household spending patterns across states that can be used together with other regional data to gain a better understanding of regional economies.

The data provide a new tool for state-level analysis of consumer activity and household economic well-being. The statistics can be used by state and regional policy makers for fiscal analysis and by businesses targeting regional markets. These prototype estimates are released for evaluation and comment by data users.

The PCE-by-state estimates are released for 16 expenditure categories that correspond to the national level expenditure categories published by BEA. There are eight categories of goods, seven categories of services, and the net expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households. The PCE-by-state estimates are reported in current dollars, and reflect variation in both prices and quantities.

Growth in Total Personal Consumption Expenditures by State

The prototype statistics show that total PCE rose in all states in 2012, but generally at a slower rate than in 2011. Growth was fastest in North Dakota at 11.5%, after growing 11.6% in 2011. PCE grew faster in 2012 compared with 2011 in Arizona, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Utah.

Map of US



Per Capita Total Personal Consumption Expenditures

On a per capita basis, the prototype estimates show that the level of total PCE in 2012 ranged from a high of $59,423 in the District of Columbia to a low of $27,406 in Mississippi. Other states with relatively high per capita PCE were Massachusetts, Connecticut, and North Dakota. Across all states, per capita PCE was $35,498. States with per capita PCE closest to the average value were Oregon and Nebraska.

Map of US



Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

U.S. Current-Account Deficit Decreases

Otmane El Rhazi, The U.S. current-account deficit-the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers – decreased to $98.5 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2014 from $102.1 billion (revised) in the first quarter of 2014. As a percentage of U.S. GDP, the deficit decreased to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent. The previously published current-account deficit for the first quarter was $111.2 billion.

current account

  • The deficit on international trade in goods increased to $189.2 billion from $182.3 billion as goods imports increased more than goods exports.
  • The surplus on international trade in services increased to $58.9 billion from $57.8 billion as services exports increased more than services imports.
  • The surplus on primary income increased to $53.1 billion from $52.4 billion as primary income receipts increased more than primary income    payments.
  • The deficit on secondary income (current transfers) decreased to $21.4 billion from $30.0 billion as secondary income receipts increased and secondary income payments decreased.

Net U.S. borrowing from financial-account transactions was $17.6 billion in the second quarter, down from $91.2 billion in the first.

  • Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives was $232.7 billion in the second quarter, up from $143.3 billion in the first.
  • Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives was $247.4 billion in the second quarter, up from $239.8 billion in the first.
  • Net borrowing in financial derivatives other than reserves was $2.8 billion in the second quarter, a shift from net lending of $5.3 billion in the first.

Read the full report.

Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI

Travel and Tourism Spending Q1 2014

Otmane El Rhazi, United states, Real spending on travel and tourism turned up in the second quarter of 2014, increasing at an annual rate of 2.1 percent after decreasing 1.1 percent (revised) in the first quarter of 2014. Real gross domestic product (GDP) also experienced an upturn, increasing 4.2 percent (second estimate) in the second quarter after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first quarter. All major categories, with the exception of “traveler accommodations” contributed to the increase in the second quarter.

The leading contributors to the upturn in the second quarter were “recreation, entertainment, and shopping,” and “food services and drinking places.” “Recreation, entertainment, and shopping” increased 4.5 percent in the second quarter after decreasing 2.7 percent in the first quarter. “Food services and drinking places” increased 6.5 percent after decreasing 1.8 percent. “Transportation” increased as well, reflecting an upturn in “passenger air transportation” that was partly offset by a downturn “all other transportation-related commodities.” Partially offsetting these upturns, “traveler accommodations” decreased 0.8 percent in the second quarter after increasing 0.6 percent.travel tourism chart



Regards,
Otmane El Rhazi
Economic Analysis
Forex & Equity Trading
Text/Mobile, +44 7414 782 320

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Otmane El Rhazi #O. El Rhazi otmane el rhazi #Otmane El Rhazi Otmane_El_Rhazi @OtmaneELRHAZI